On March 6, the United States “Department of War” released its latest Hollywood movie production. The brief video celebrated the first publicized joint US-Ecuador strike, days after the two nations announced combined military operations “to combat the scourge of narco-terrorism.”
Up to 20 men in military uniform hurry toward a waiting helicopter. The helicopter speeds across black-and-white terrain. Tense movie music plays. A fiery explosion engulfs a small building by a river, on the edge of a lush jungle. Smoke billows from the rubble, filmed from multiple angles on the ground and in the air. Besides the theatrics, it’s unclear why so many soldiers were deployed by helicopter for an air strike.
Ecuadorean President Daniel Noboa claimed the target was a training facility run by Mono Tole —an alias used by the head of Comandos de la Frontera, a dissident Colombian FARC faction operating in Ecuador—and a “training area for drug traffickers.” Casualty numbers have not been released.
President Noboa has enthusiastically welcomed the Trump administration’s violent interventions.
“We will find them. Wherever they hide, we will be there,” Noboa posted with dramatic flourish befitting a Department of War partner. “Our borders will not be bases for drug trafficking.”
Unlike other leaders in the region, who’ve vehemently protested the Trump administration’s violent interventions—including the boat bombings in the Caribbean and Pacific that claimed their six latest victims on March 8, raising the known death toll to 156—Noboa has enthusiastically welcomed them.
Noboa sees a strong political incentive to embrace the Trump administration’s “tough-on-crime” swagger against so-called “narco-terrorists.” The right-wing president was reportedly shocked by a tie with his left-wing opponent, Luisa Gonzáles, in the first round of Ecuador’s presidential election on February 9, 2025.
Noboa responded by hiring US mercenary Erik Prince and putting “meat on the fire” —or stoking public fear of violent crime. That, and he happened to declare a “state of exception”—suspending the right to freedom of assembly, and authorizing searches without warrants—in key electoral areas just ahead of the April 13 runoff vote.
Noboa also had a private visit with President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago right before that election, which he won by a surprising 11-point margin. His opponent claimed the election was rigged.
“The affinity can be explained by a shared conservative narrative that frames organized crime primarily as a threat that must be addressed through military and security strategies.”
The two presidents have a mutual hardline agenda, explained Dr. Carla Álvarez Velasco, a professor at the School of Security and Defense at the Universidad de Posgrado del Estado in Quito, Ecuador.
“The affinity between President Noboa and Donald Trump can be explained by a shared conservative narrative that frames organized crime primarily as a threat that must be addressed through military and security strategies, with strong military and police cooperation and, in some cases, economic pressure,” she told Filter.
“This contrasts with the position of Colombian President Gustavo Petro, who has promoted a more critical perspective on the traditional ‘war on drugs’ approach,” she noted. “These differences have generated regional tensions, particularly because some of the policies adopted by Ecuador—such as tariff increases on Colombian products—are beginning to affect populations on both sides of the border without necessarily improving the security situation in either country.”
Violence has increased in Ecuador in recent years. In 2020, the country reportedly suffered 1,372 homicides. By 2025, that number had surged to 9,125.
Glaeldys González Calanche, an analyst with the International Crisis group based in Bogotá, Colombia, explained that Colombia’s peace deal with the FARC guerillas had the effect of ramping up cocaine production, while violent power struggles between trafficking groups spilled over into Ecuador.
“A lot of Mexican gangs began to vie for territory in Ecuador,” she told Filter. “And internally, you have the murder of Jorge Luis Zambrano, or ‘Rasquiña,’ the head of Los Choneros, in 2020.”
“After, you see these violent clashes between rival groups,” she continued. “There are outbursts of violence in prison and that explodes into the street. Last year was the most violent in history. The country has not seen that before.”
“It’s serving to reproduce cycles of violence.”
The whole situation can be seen in cause-and-effect terms: Drug prohibition generates lucrative illicit markets, fostering violence as different factions vie for control, which is only worsened by drug enforcement. Violence gives rise to public fear, which is exploited by authoritarian politicians, who then engage in yet more dramatic drug-war violence.
Both experts agree that the new Ecuador-US military crackdown won’t disrupt the drug trade in any meaningful, long-term way.
“Drug trafficking is a highly adaptable economic activity,” Velasco said. “Joint maritime operations can certainly disrupt trafficking routes temporarily, particularly in the Pacific. However, international experience shows that criminal networks are extremely flexible. They can quickly change routes, ports, transportation methods and even personnel.”
Calanche said she understands the cosmetic reasons for the military action in Ecuador. “It’s part of the political narrative, of pushing hard with the crackdown. It’s a message to the public that they’re addressing these issues.”
Being seen to be doing something is one thing, but, “It doesn’t affect the markets and it doesn’t affect the groups,” she continued. “They adapt.”
Worse than having no effect at all, killing leaders or forcing trafficking groups into different territory can easily lead to more violence impacting local communities amid the ensuing power struggles.
“What’s needed is to tackle and address corruption and collusion between the cartels and the government, it’s serving to reproduce cycles of violence,” Calanche said. “A military crackdown doesn’t do anything, unless it leads to a group fragmenting, [then] there’s more violence, and the operation continues with others in charge.”
Screenshot via US government film
