The United Kingdom is heading for an explosion in the illicit vapes market when it bans single-use devices in June. That warning comes from analysts, politicians, vape advocates and consumer groups, who say the government is ill-prepared for the impending ban.
Projections of the policy’s other effects meanwhile vary from showing large numbers of vapers switching back to deadly cigarettes, to little impact on youth vaping—the major rationale for the disposables ban in the first place.
Altogether, many experts deem the policy to be as pointless or counterproductive as it is unenforceable.
“The British government has woefully underestimated the resources needed to enforce the disposable ban, effectively making a rod for their own back,” Mark Oates, director of the consumer advocacy group We Vape, told Filter.
Oates referenced analysis from the Association of Convenience Stores (ACS), an organization representing retailers. The group looked at the resources needed to enforce the ban that takes effect on June 1. It found that of the £30 million per year the government has allocated to target illicit trade over the next five years, only £10 million per year is allocated to Trading Standards.
That £10 million “equates to between £30,000 and £50,000 per authority in England, barely enough to fund one additional enforcement officer in each area,” the report states. It’s only a third of the funds that would be required to meaningfully enforce the new law, the group estimates.
In this context, ACS Chief Executive James Lowman told Filter that the illicit vapes market is set to “receive a boost” as the disposables ban takes effect.
In the past three years, Trading Standards officers have reportedly seized more than 6 million illegal vaping products in England alone. Yet it’s been reported that just 80 apprentice Trading Standards officers have been recruited to enforce the new ban.
The unregulated vapes market is already growing in the UK, with attendant risks to consumers.
“They are creating a Russian doll of absurdities, which will not end well,” Bates said of the government.
Back in 2023, the prominent charity Action on Smoking and Health (UK) stated that while it was “sympathetic” to calls for a disposables ban on youth-vaping and environmental grounds, it could not support the policy because the illicit market “will be turbo-charged.”
Unregulated vapes have “been found to contain all sorts of toxic chemicals banned in legal products, and there’s no way to ensure they’re properly recycled,” ASH stated.
The charity has since shifted its position, however, welcoming the confirmation of the ban when it came in October 2024, though with some reservations.
Tobacco harm reduction expert Clive Bates, of Counterfactual Consulting, believes that many people will return to smoking under the ban. He noted that an impact assessment from the government’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) in late 2024 found that 29 percent of people who currently vape would do so.
The prospect of ending legal access to low-barrier harm reduction options with low startup costs, which will remain available illegally, has “created conditions for a massive black market,” he told Filter.
“They are creating a Russian doll of absurdities, which will not end well,” Bates said of the government.
Some also fear violence associated with struggles for control of a lucrative illicit trade. “We only need to look at Australia, where firebombings and murder are the tools of the trade for biker gangs running the vaping black market, to see where this ban could lead,” Oates said.
Jack Rankin, a member of parliament for the opposition Conservative Party, and part of the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Responsible Vaping, has similarly stated that, “With no proper resources or plan to monitor the market, underworld operators will move quickly to usher in a new era of criminal enterprise in vaping products.”
Golden told Filter she’s “disappointed” by a lack of government messaging around “behavior change” as the ban approaches, to help ensure that people using disposables don’t resume smoking.
New research from University College London (UCL) has meanwhile found that the imminent ban, as retailers pull disposables from shelves, has already kick-started changes to consumer behavior in both adults and youth.
The proportion of vapers aged 16-24 who mainly use disposables dropped by almost half in the past year, the study found, from 63 percent to 35 percent. But the researchers believe this group has mainly migrated to refillable models, rather than quitting. With this in mind, lead author Dr. Sarah Jackson concluded that the ban may have “limited impact” on vaping rates, including youth vaping.
That’s a rosier picture than the DEFRA projection of a large-scale return to cigarettes. But the UCL study also found that total vaping prevalence among British adults stayed flat in the year ending January 2025, after rising rapidly before then. Other research has found that smoking cessation has stalled in England since 2020.
A chilling effect from negative messaging on vapes surrounding the disposables ban could be playing a role here.
Gillian Golden, CEO of the Independent British Vape Trade Association, told Filter she’s “disappointed” by a lack of government messaging around “behavior change” as the ban approaches, to help ensure that people using disposables don’t resume smoking.
“Adult consumers should be informed that alternatives to single-use products are available, and are usually more cost-effective,” Golden said.
Photograph by Filter
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