The most striking thing about tobacco giant Altria’s second-quarter report is the nature of the rapid transition it reflects from cigarettes to non-combustibles in the United States, according to expert David Sweanor, who reviewed the information released in late July.
“The greatest part of the decline in use of lethal cigarettes is attributed to movement to disposable vaping products and nicotine pouch products like Zyn,” Sweanor, advisory board chair of the University of Ottawa’s Centre for Health Law, Policy and Ethics, and a longtime nicotine-industry observer, told Filter.
“Altria specially attributes much of the fall in cigarette sales to the rise of disposables,” he emphasized.
That’s a fascinating takeaway, when disposable vapes have been the focus of controversy both within and outside the US. Opponents say the accessibility and single-use nature of the devices lead to underage vaping and environmental harm. Proponents say that disposables’ ease of use and low startup cost compared to other vape systems makes them a critical low-barrier option for people switching from cigarettes, and call for more recycling.
“Consumers are moving away from lethal cigarettes in extraordinary numbers and are doing it despite obstructionist regulations and massive misinformation.”
According to data presented by Altria, 11.7 million people—a sizable majority of an estimated 18.6 million US adults who vape—are now using disposables. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has authorized only four disposable vaping products. Countless others are nonetheless widely sold in many flavors, causing Altria to title its slide “Illicit Products Driving E-Vapor Category Growth.”
“In their presentation, Altria stated ‘illicits’ now comprise 60 percent of the [vape] market,” Sweanor commented. “Consumers are moving away from lethal cigarettes in extraordinary numbers and are doing it despite obstructionist regulations and massive misinformation.”
The data on overall vaping and smoking numbers look extremely promising for public health. Altria’s total of 18.6 million adults vaping has surged from 15.5 million one year ago, and 13.0 million two years ago.
As tobacco harm reduction advocates would expect, cigarette sales are simultaneously falling fast. Altria’s data put the industry-wide rate of decline in cigarette sales at 9.5 percent in the second quarter (and 8.5 percent for the first half of 2024).
“The company attributes a 1.9 percent decline in cigarette sales to price elasticity—the companies continue to raise prices aggressively—and a total decline of between 3 and 4 percent due to consumers moving from cigarettes to alternatives,” Sweanor explained.
The report states that this “cross category movement” is “primarily driven by illicit disposable e-vapor products.” That’s reflected in how rapidly the estimated proportion of disposable use among adult vapers (currently 11.7 million out of 18.6 million) has grown.
One year ago, just under half of adult vapers (7.7 million out of 15.5 million) were using disposables; two years ago (4.9 million out of 13.0 million), the proportion was substantially lower.
Altria, which sells FDA-authorized vaping products manufactured by its subsidiary NJOY, resents this disruptive competition from unauthorized manufacturers. But Sweanor is unimpressed by the response to disposables from large companies and other entities.
“The effort by Altria, other cigarette companies, the FDA, anti-tobacco groups and others to try to close down the disposable market rather than learn from it and make better consumer offers is very concerning,” he said.
Tobacco companies including Altria have supported so-called PMTA registry bills in different states. These promote enforcement of the FDA’s vape-authorization decisions—seeking to restrict sales to the small number of FDA-authorized products, rather than allow continuation of the huge gray market for unauthorized vapes.
“Public health measures are effective when we work with, rather than seek to coerce, consumers.”
Critics see this as an attempt by big companies to dominate the market at the expense of valuable options, including a wide range of flavors, for people seeking to quit smoking.
Many also view the FDA’s heavily criticized premarket tobacco product applications (PMTA) process as so onerous and expensive that it was always stacked in favor of companies with the deepest pockets.
Millions of PMTA applications have been rejected, and all of the current FDA-authorized products are manufactured by tobacco companies or their subsidiaries. The FDA, many advocates have said, has essentially created today’s large unregulated market.
Altria’s report shows with great clarity how consumers are choosing to quit cigarettes, Sweanor said, but “the company is backing efforts to try to remove from the market the products that have been replacing cigarettes.”
“Public health measures are effective when we work with, rather than seek to coerce, consumers,” he warned. Meanwhile, “trying to enforce laws that are undermining public health will cause great harm—not least to the credibility of government authorities.”
Asked to comment on these criticisms, an Altria representative pointed Filter to recent remarks by CEO William F. Gifford, speaking on the company’s quarterly earnings call.
Gifford said the vape market “continues to be overrun by illicit disposable products due to a lack of effective regulation and enforcement.” He applauded how, “in June, the Justice Department and the FDA announced the creation of a federal multi-agency task force, which is expected to coordinate and streamline efforts to bring all available criminal and civil tools to bear against the illegal distribution and sale of e-vapor products.”
“As we’ve stated in the past,” Gifford concluded, “regulation without enforcement is indistinguishable from no regulation at all.”
Most tobacco harm reduction advocates would probably agree with Sweanor that enforcement efforts against products people are currently using to quit cigarettes will do more harm than good. But they also want to see a much larger, more varied regulated vape market—with appropriate consumer protections—than the FDA has so far permitted.
There might, then, be some common ground with another Altria statement the representative highlighted: “We believe the best way to avert the threat of illicit markets is with harm reduction policies that satisfy adult tobacco consumer demand within the regulated system. That means the FDA must accelerate authorizations of smoke-free alternatives to meet adult smoker demand and policymakers must oppose broad-based bans …”
Altria’s second-quarter report also pointed to growing vape-market share for NJOY. In 2022, before its 2023 acquisition by Altria, NJOY received FDA authorization for vaping products including two disposable products. Then in June 2024, NJOY menthol products, including two disposable products, became the first ever non-tobacco flavored vaping products to receive authorization.
“Consumers are telling us how they want to get away from cigarettes. We should listen to them and facilitate that transition.”
To Sweanor, a mass shift from cigarettes to vapes, unregulated or not, is to be celebrated—and companies should learn from, rather than resist, how it’s happening.
“This is a consumer-led movement facilitated by innovative technology,” he said. ”Publicly listed companies have an obligation to convey truthful information to the markets, and we should be paying attention to what is being reported to shareholders.”
“The urban theorist Jane Jacobs wrote that we should look at footsteps in a park after a snowfall, because that tells us where people wish to go, and we should then plan our walking paths accordingly,” Sweanor concluded. “Consumers are telling us how they want to get away from cigarettes. We should listen to them and facilitate that transition.”
Photograph by Vaping360 via Flickr/Creative Commons 2.0
Correction, August 19: This article has been edited to remove an earlier statement that the FDA has authorized no disposable vaping products. The agency has in fact authorized four disposable NJOY products.
The Influence Foundation, which operates Filter, has received unrestricted grants from Altria Client Services. Filter’s Editorial Independence Policy applies.