In the aftermath of the November 5 election, cannabis reform advocates are working to determine what the outcomes will mean for state-level efforts at legalization. Shifts in party control over legislative chambers as well as the election of new governors in some states have forced activists to take a hard look at strategy for the coming legislative sessions.
Marijuana Moment spoke with activists involved in reform efforts in various states in the past week, including staffers at the organization Marijuana Policy Project (MPP), about what the election results might mean in the year ahead. They said that some states, such as Pennsylvania and Hawaii, are well positioned to potentially enact adult-use legalization, while voters in New Hampshire, for example, may have largely shut the door to legalization for the time being.
Yet the picture in other states, including Florida and Wisconsin, remains less clear in the election’s aftermath, with strong support among voters for marijuana legalization but legislative makeups that raise questions about whether any kind of reform might ultimately be achievable.
Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, Democrats will retain their one-seat majority control of the state’s House of Representatives, which could help pro-legalization Governor Josh Shapiro (D) make progress toward enacting the reform. Republicans, meanwhile, will stay in control of the Senate.
Despite the divided legislature, many advocates are optimistic that Pennsylvania could be in the next wave of states to pass adult-use legalization.
“Pennsylvania, I still think, is one of the states that’s most likely to pass in the next few years,” Karen O’Keefe, director of state policies at MPP, told Marijuana Moment in an interview.
“We are hopeful to see the legislature double down on their efforts in January to get Pennsylvania on track.”
The local group Responsible PA, meanwhile, said after the election resulted in Democrats keeping their House majority that “the nation is now looking at Pennsylvania to be the next large state to legalize adult-use cannabis.”
“As this chamber moved so close to bipartisian cannabis legalization at the end of the 2024 session, we are hopeful to see the legislature double down on their efforts in January to get Pennsylvania on track with 90 percent of our neighbors with an adult-use cannabis market,” the group said in a statement. “The conversation will also undoubtedly become a major budget item for PA lawmakers heading into 2025.”
House Leader Matt Bradford has said there’s a “will in the House to move forward” on marijuana legalization, though he noted the proposal could run into pushback from the GOP-controlled Senate.
Polling suggests bipartisan support among voters for marijuana legalization in Pennsylvania, including in at least two jurisdictions where races were tight between House candidates of opposite parties.
In September, Reps. Aaron Kaufer (R) and Emily Kinkead (D) formally introduced a bipartisan marijuana legalization bill, alongside 15 other cosponsors.
And in July, Shapiro said his administration and lawmakers would “come back and continue to fight” for marijuana legalization and other policy priorities that were omitted from budget legislation he signed into law that month.
Meanwhile, a top GOP Pennsylvania senator who has long expressed concerns about marijuana legalization told advocates recently that she’s against arresting people over cannabis, noting that the policy change could protect her son and disclosing that if it weren’t for marijuana, she might not have met her husband, according to an activist who spoke with her.
“My money would be on Hawaii being the best bet for legalization in 2025.”
Hawaii
After last legislative session’s push to legalize adult-use marijuana in Hawaii fell short, advocates are hopeful that the coming session could finally bring about the reform. O’Keefe at MPP thinks the state is perhaps the most likely to adopt legalization in the year ahead.
“My money would be on Hawaii being the best bet for legalization in 2025,” she said. “Looking at the election results overall” in the state’s legislature, she added, “we have more yeses and likely yeses than we have nos and likely nos.”
“It’s certainly not a slam-dunk,” O’Keefe acknowledged, “but it’s the only state left [considering legalization] that’s got a Democratic trifecta,” with the party controlling both the governor’s office and both chambers of the legislature.
“There’s a number of folks we still need to talk to in the House. The Senate remains largely supportive. The governor remains largely supportive,” she continued. “My understanding is that the new speaker shouldn’t be a problem. So we’ll need to look at who ends up chairing and being on each of the committees that it needs to get through.”
While Hawaii’s Senate approved an adult-use marijuana legalization bill in March, proposals to end prohibition have consistently stalled out before reaching the finish line. Following the failure of the broader legalization push, Gov. Josh Green (D) said in April that he has “a possible solution” to the situation: vastly expanding the Hawaii’s existing medical cannabis system to allow people to register based on any health concern rather than needing to have one of a specific list of conditions.
A separate bill to expand the state’s existing law decriminalizing possession of small amounts of cannabis also failed to pass this session.
In the meantime, Green signed a separate bill into law, HB 1595, to create a single-county pilot program that will expunge certain non-conviction marijuana arrest records.
As originally introduced, that measure from Rep. David Tarnas (D) would have directed state officials to automatically expunge tens of thousands of arrest and conviction records for low-level marijuana possession. But the Senate Judiciary Committee later gutted the proposal, replacing the statewide plan with a pilot program in Hawaii County that would apply only to non-conviction arrest records.
State officials nevertheless continue to evaluate what legalization in Hawaii might look like. In October they announced they’re seeking proposals to assess the state’s current medical marijuana program—and also estimate demand for recreational sales if the state eventually moves forward with adult-use legalization.
Florida
One common question in the aftermath of the November 5 defeat of Amendment 3, which would have legalized adult-use marijuana in Florida, is whether the 56 percent support for the reform will encourage lawmakers to take action. While support didn’t crack the 60-percent threshold needed to pass the constitutional amendment, campaign organizers have noted that a majority of Floridians came out in favor of ending prohibition.
Will that make a difference in the legislative session ahead? Advocates aren’t so sure.
“In all honesty, no, I don’t,” said MPP’s Kevin Caldwell, when asked whether he believed lawmakers would be moved by the 55.9 percent of voters who cast ballots in favor of the reform. But while he’d be surprised to Florida enact adult-use legalization anytime soon, Caldwell—MPP’s southeast legislative manager—predicted the state might still take steps to expand its existing medical marijuana program.
“I look forward to working with allies on both sides of the fence,” he told Marijuana Moment. “We will continue to see cannabis policies move forward.”
“One of the things that fascinates me about Florida is this, for lack of a better word, obsession that Gov. DeSantis had with homegrow.”
As for what kind of changes the state might see, Caldwell noted that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) aligned himself with the state’s hemp industry ahead of the election and campaigned hard against Amendment 3, he said, due in part to its lack of homegrow protections.
“One of the things that fascinates me about Florida is this, for lack of a better word, obsession that Gov. DeSantis had with homegrow,” he said. “Maybe that evolution continues and he allows the medical patients of Florida to grow a couple of plants for their own medicine.”
In the days after the election, one Republican lawmaker floated the idea of pursuing a limited marijuana homegrow and personal-use legalization measure, but other GOP politicians called the idea a nonstarter.
“I’d love to test the waters and see the reception for a solely homegrown marijuana bill,” said Rep. Alex Andrade (R), though he added he has “no idea” whether the proposal would get traction with other lawmakers.
At least some other lawmakers are open to the idea. Sen. Joe Gruters (R), who supported Amendment 3, said he’d like to see adult-use legalization but with more “guardrails” that opponents said the ballot measure was missing.
But incoming Senate President Ben Albritton (R) has said he doesn’t support expansion of legalization beyond Florida’s existing medical marijuana program. And incoming House Speaker Daniel Perez (R), who opposed the recent ballot measure, said his views on legalization haven’t changed.
Separately, Caldwell at MPP predicted lawmakers will have an appetite to go after the proliferation of intoxicating hemp products in the state this session, though DeSantis might stand in their way. “The Florida legislature harshly curtailed the consumable hemp program, and at the last minute, the governor vetoed that bill, and there was not enough to override that veto,” he said. “So where does the legislature go at this point?”
New Hampshire
What felt to many supporters in 2023 like strong momentum to legalize marijuana in New Hampshire has diminished sharply since the election of Republican Kelly Ayotte to replace outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu (R). While Sununu was a hesitant supporter of adult-use legalization through a state-controlled system of franchised stores in the last legislative session, Governor-elect Ayotte has said flatly that she’ll oppose any effort at the reform.
Republicans also added to their majority control of the state Senate, ousting Democratic Minority Leader Donna Soucy and Senator Shannon Chandley (D), both of whom had backed plans to legalize.
“The odds in the next biennium do not appear great.”
Matt Simon, director of public and government relations at the medical marijuana provider GraniteLeaf, said the election results are likely to delay comprehensive legalization in New Hampshire for years—though he left the door open for Ayotte to revise her views on the issue.
“New Hampshire will definitely legalize cannabis someday,” he told Marijuana Moment earlier in November. “The odds of that happening in the next biennium do not appear great.”
Sen. Daryl Abbas (R), who helmed a state panel on cannabis in 2023 that failed to accomplish its charge of laying the groundwork for a legalization bill to begin last legislative session, told Marijuana Moment in an email earlier in November that there are “more pressing matters” for the session ahead.
“We had an opportunity to legalize marijuana last session but that window has closed,” Abbas said. “I will not support efforts to legalize cannabis and would likely vote against such legislation. I believe there are more pressing matters that need my attention to help serve the people of my district and the people of New Hampshire.”
Despite the new governor’s opposition and an uphill fight in the legislature, Democratic Rep. Jared Sullivan has requested two versions of legalization legislation be drafted for the coming session: one bill that would legalize and regulate a commercial cannabis industry, and another that would merely legalize personal possession and use.
“They are unlikely to pass [and] become law,” the lawmaker acknowledged in an email earlier in November, “but at least the conversation will continue.”
Ayotte’s campaign has not responded to a request for comment.
State lawmakers nearly passed legislation this past session that would have legalized and regulated marijuana for adults. The Republican-sponsored measure had bipartisan support in both legislative chambers, but House Democrats narrowly voted to table it at the last minute.
Tabling the legislation sparked accusations that politicians were using the issue to earn the party votes at the ballot box, but most who voted against the bill at the time said they were opposed to the plan on its merits, pointing to the proposal’s state-controlled franchise model, which would have given the state unprecedented sway over retail stores and consumer prices.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) said in May that he was “hopeful” that legislation to legalize adult-use cannabis could pass if Democrats took control of the legislature in the election. Despite gains for the party through several flipped seats following a redistricting plan that was enacted, the GOP will maintain its majority in both the state Senate and Assembly in the next session.
“It still seems possible, maybe, that Wisconsin could pass medical cannabis,” said O’Keefe at MPP. But it’s not the more favorable outcome that advocates were hoping for.
Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, a Republican, unveiled a medical cannabis bill in January, proposing the “most restrictive” medical cannabis law in the country. It quickly drew criticism, both from Democrats who wanted comprehensive legalization, as well as Republican Senate leaders who took issue with the specifics of the proposal.
O’Keefe said she saw a possibility for medical marijuana in Wisconsin in the legislative session ahead, but only if parties can find common ground on what a revised medical bill would look like.
North Carolina
Between the two Carolinas, Caldwell at MPP said he’s more bullish on the northern neighbor in terms of likely cannabis reform this session. He pointed to Democratic gains in the State House and support for medical marijuana from Republican Sen. Bill Rabon, a colon cancer survivor who’s said cannabis helped him manage nausea.
“Sen. Rabon has said that he’s going to continue to [introduce] his medical cannabis bill every year as long as he’s in,” Caldwell said, “so he’s going to continue to push.”
Meanwhile in the House, Caldwell noted, Republicans now have a simple majority—not the supermajority they had before the election. And Democrats will hold the positions of attorney general, secretary of state, lieutenant governor and governor.
Caldwell said he believes there’s a chance for at least some moderate reforms.
If Governor-elect Josh Stein (D), the state’s current attorney general, “uses his bully pulpit a little bit and plays it right,” Caldwell said, he believes there’s a chance for at least some moderate reforms, for example strengthening what he called the state’s “incredibly weak” so-called decriminalization law, under which possession is a misdemeanor but does not carry the possibility of jail time.
In June, the North Carolina Senate approved a bill that would legalize medical marijuana, though the reform has consistently stalled in the House due to a lack of majority support within the Republican caucus. Text in that bill was similar to that of a separate, standalone bill from Rabon.
As he’s previously disclosed, Rabon said his doctor advised him to use marijuana before he went through chemotherapy, and he visited his local law enforcement to tell them that he intended to break the law to use the plant for therapy. Packages of marijuana then regularly showed up in the mail, and he’d take “three puffs” of cannabis after work to treat his symptoms.
Meanwhile in North Carolina, the only legal marijuana retailer within the state began sales to all adults 21 and older in September. The shop is located on the 57,000-acre Qualla Boundary of the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians, where the tribe’s members voted to legalize adult-use cannabis in September 2023.
South Carolina
As for South Carolina, Caldwell said there’s “still a lot of questions” around how a medical marijuana bill would fare in the state legislature, but he predicted that state is “going to continue to have challenges” on its path to adopting the change.
“Once again, our hero and lead sponsor [Republican Sen.] Tom Davis was strongly re-elected again,” Caldwell said. “We know he’s dedicated to this, and we got a lot of new people coming in.”
Davis’s medical cannabis legislation has advanced through the Senate several times, only to consistently stall on the House side.
While there may not currently be enough votes to enact the reform, Caldwell emphasized the possible impact of Republican President-elect Donald Trump, whom he noted has “spoken very, very much in favor of medical cannabis.”
It’s possible, “specifically in the Carolinas, and maybe even to a point in Kansas, maybe there will be some kind of push from the executive branch to come to a compromise position,” he said.
Kansas
In Kansas, where Caldwell gave testimony in support of medical marijuana reform to a legislative committee earlier in 2024, he said many state-level lawmakers are still “utterly terrified at the idea of legalizing cannabis.” But as with the Carolinas, he held out hope that pressure from the incoming Trump administration might open lawmakers’ minds to a compromise medical marijuana program.
“We’ll just have to see,” he said, “but I am keeping my chin up.”
Ending criminal penalties or passing adult-use legalization is “going to be very challenging.”
The Kansas House passed a medical cannabis legalization bill in 2021, but efforts in the Senate have continued to prove challenging.
Following what’s been interpreted by some as a repudiation of the state’s Democratic Party in last week’s election, one of the big questions now is what kind of reforms Republicans might support.
“I think there there is still plenty of room for cannabis to continue to grow,” Caldwell said, but at the same time he acknowledged that ending criminal penalties or passing adult-use legalization is “going to be very challenging.”
“I think the focus in the deep South, in my world, is going to be ‘take victories where you can,’” he said, “but once again, it’s going to be slow, incremental victories.”
Overall Outlook for Cannabis in 2025
O’Keefe, MPP’s director of state policies, also noted that despite some recent failures at expanding state-level cannabis reform, so far no state has undone a marijuana legalization law.
Meanwhile, as the dust settles on the presidential election, podcaster Joe Rogan said recently that Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris “didn’t want to talk about marijuana legalization” when she was invited—and ultimately declined—to participate an interview on his podcast.
Asked about it on an episode that aired November 12, Rogan said the Harris campaign “had requirements on things that she didn’t want to talk about” that factored into that decision.
“She didn’t want to talk about marijuana legalization, which I thought was hilarious,” said Rogan, who endorsed Trump on the eve of Election Day, days after interviewing the GOP nominee.
Now the question for advocates and stakeholders is what it means for cannabis to have Trump retake the Oval Office.
Whether the president-elect’s stated support for legalization in Florida, for example, will translate into action on reform legislation after Trump takes office in January is uncertain.
Republicans have reclaimed a majority in the US Senate, and the political composition of the House is still to be determined. The president’s power to unilaterally change federal marijuana laws is limited, and GOP congressional lawmakers have historically resisted cannabis reform.
Photograph by Stock Catalog/QuoteCatalog via Flickr/Creative Commons 2.0
This story was originally published by Marijuana Moment, which tracks the politics and policy of cannabis and drugs. Follow Marijuana Moment on Twitter and Facebook, and sign up for its newsletter.
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