England will miss its “smoke free” target by nearly a decade, a leading charity, Cancer Research UK (CRUK), has predicted.
Smoking in the United Kingdom has fallen substantially in the past 15 years. In 2023, England’s rate was 11.6 percent—a touch under the overall UK rate of 11.9 percent, which is down from 20.2 percent in 2011. But a CRUK analysis has found that England’s numbers are not declining nearly fast enough to meet the government’s target of “smoke free” status—a rate of 5 percent or less—by 2030.
“If recent trends continue, England will achieve 5 percent average adult smoking prevalence in 2039—almost a decade behind schedule,” the charity said.
That would put it well behind other countries, too. Earlier in November, Sweden became the world’s first to reach the “smoke free” benchmark, with a recorded rate of 4.5 percent—thanks largely to widespread switching to snus, a safer smokeless tobacco product.
Meanwhile New Zealand, where the government has promoted switching to vapes, could possibly meet its own “smoke free” target in 2025, experts have told Filter.
Vapes have also dominated UK hopes. A 2024 report from the charity Action on Smoking and Health found that 11 percent of adults currently vape, only just lower than the smoking rate. Most vapers—3 million people in Britain—used to smoke but no longer do.
“I’d say that CRUK are being overly optimistic.”
But a slowdown has been evident, with a December 2023 study, funded by CRUK, finding that the long-term decline in smoking prevalence “has nearly ground to a halt since the start of the pandemic.”
Is the picture really that gloomy, and if so, what’s been going wrong?
“I’d say that CRUK are being overly optimistic,” Martin Cullip, a British tobacco harm reduction advocate, told Filter.
Cullip blames a growing number of “relentless attacks” on vaping, by politicians and the media, for turning the false belief that vaping is as harmful as smoking into the “majority view.” This, he suggested, naturally translates to fewer people migrating to the safer product.
Political developments in a worsening climate for British tobacco harm reduction add to the negative messaging and threaten to hold things back even more. The government has recently announced both a ban on disposable vapes, taking effect in June 2025, and new taxation on vapes from October 2026.
“The actions of this government will only exacerbate what CRUK calls the ‘deprivation gap.’”
The tax is set to “apply a 264 percent rise in the cost of the cheapest vaping liquids for refillable vapes,” Cullip said, greatly reducing people’s incentive to switch.
The ban on disposables—a low-barrier way to begin vaping with low startup costs—will similarly most impact lower-income communities where smoking rates are highest.
CRUK’s analysis found that if England reaches the smoke free target in 2039 as projected, almost 80 percent of people who still smoke will be from the most deprived 10 percent of the population.
“The charity bemoans higher smoking rates in lower socioeconomic groups, but the actions of this government will only exacerbate what CRUK calls the ‘deprivation gap,’” Cullip said.
Advocates are critical of CRUK’s support for a piece of legislation considered likely to deter people from switching.
The Tobacco and Vapes Bill was originally introduced by the previous Conservative government, but shelved in May as the UK held a snap election. The new Labour government announced in July that it would bring back the legislation, and formally introduced it to Parliament on November 5.
The controversial bill would ban cigarette sales to anyone born after 2008. It would also ban vape advertising and give ministers new powers to regulate—and potentially ban—vape flavors, which many find critical in switching.
“The government wants to ban disposables, tax vapes, restrict flavors and impose display restrictions—all cheered on by groups that are supposedly anti-smoking.”
Michelle Mitchell, CRUK’s chief executive, has urged the government to make the bill law as soon as possible, as part of “the path to a smoke-free UK.”
“Ironically with the support of groups like Cancer Research UK,” the government is taking “ineffective measures on smoking,” tobacco harm reduction advocate Clive Bates, of Counterfactual Consulting, told Filter.
Bates notes that the young people to whom the smoking ban would apply overwhelmingly don’t smoke, while reducing the visibility and variety of vapes will harm the prospects of the 6 million people who do smoke.
“It will be a mess and a failure,” he said. “The government wants to ban disposables, tax vapes, restrict flavors and impose retail display restrictions—all cheered on by groups that are supposedly anti-smoking.”
Cullip echoed Bates’s sentiment (both have written for Filter), noting the mismatch when CRUK shares balanced information on vaping.
“Public health activists who supposedly support vaping as an alternative to smoking,” yet back policies detrimental to people who smoke, means things “will only get worse,” he said.
“It’s pretty obvious what will happen,” Bates agreed. “More smoking, more illicit trade in unregulated vapes, and more creative workarounds by consumers and suppliers.”
“The government’s goal of a smoke-free society by 2030 has long since become a laughable fantasy,” Cullip said. “And when CRUK next study the data, they will probably find that this 2039 date is increasingly unrealistic, too.”
Photograph by malavoda via Flickr/Creative Commons 2.0
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